Trump’s Presidential Win is a Case in Point
Stock markets spiked when the news broke on the morning of Nov. 6, 2024 that Donald J. Trump had captured the Electoral College votes required to be elected for a second term as President of the United States. Trump became the first person since President Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century elected to serve two non-consecutive terms in the Oval Office.
U.S. President Donald J. Trump served as the 45th United States president from 2017 to 2021 and returns as the nation’s 47th president in 2025. Public domain image via Wikimedia Commons President Trump’s return to the White House was largely driven by issues relating to the economy, despite dropping unemployment rates and a robust stock market in the months leading up to the 2024 presidential election. Issues relating to immigration also played a role in the re-election.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,507 points on Nov. 6, 2024 as the world learned of Trump’s win over Democratic rival and sitting Vice President Kamala Harris. Wall Street rallied while many investors sold off gold and silver. As gold shed more than $50 an ounce, dropping from $2,720 to $2,665 in a matter of hours, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high of 43,729.93. It was the first time the Dow tacked on more than 1,000 points in a single day since November 2022.
Meanwhile, gold prices continued taking hits, sinking to $2,590, a week to the day after the election. It’s a lot for bullion investors to digest. And this comes at a time when the world looks ahead to a four-year future with President Trump again at the helm. He returns to the Oval Office at a crucial juncture in world history while wars rage in Ukraine and the Middle East, and continued threats loom in North Korea, Iran, and Russia.
Wall Street rallied while many investors sold off gold and silver. As gold shed more than $50 an ounce, dropping from $2,720 to $2,665 in a matter of hours, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high of 43,729.93.”
And, of course, what may unfold here in the United States are also unknown factors. Will the promise of new tariffs on goods from China and elsewhere promote an expansion of manufacturing jobs in the U.S.? Will a push for energy independence spur green-commerce growth or isolate the country from international trade partners? And how will all this impact gold prices and the rare coin market?
Numismatic Consequences of U.S. Presidential Elections
“Presidential elections do have consequences for our economy, but how much do these elections directly affect the values of the stock and bond markets, gold, silver, rare coins and even crypto? Probably less than you would imagine,” says Michael Garofalo, COINage columnist and longtime bullion expert. “Presidential elections and presidential terms rank behind other fears or ‘black swan’ events for historically impacting metals prices.”
Garofalo says a major cyber-attack, a major terrorist attack, a war, a pandemic and a major natural disaster are all events that have demonstrated a greater effect on bullion prices than anything a president can or has done. Garofalo says the anticipation surrounding presidential elections can stir some changes in the bullion market.
“With respect to the United States, because we are the major player in the total global economy, our impact is greater than any other nation’s possible influence. Throughout our recent history, the elected presidential policies have had a greater impact on metals prices than do the actual elections,” says Garofalo, whose professional bullion expertise goes back to when Jimmy Carter held office as president.
Meanwhile, gold prices continued taking hits, sinking further, to $2,590, a week to the day after the election. It’s a lot for bullion investors to digest. And this comes at a time when the world looks ahead at a four-year future with President Trump at the helm.”
Gold Price Swings Throughout History
Gold prices have seen many swings in price over the last 50 years. “During the time that Jimmy Carter served as president, 1977-1981, the price of gold soared 326%,” Garofalo recalls. “But was Carter responsible for that price movement? No. In my opinion, the Hunt brothers of Texas, in their attempt to corner the silver market, drove those gains much more than anything that Carter may have done. Silver soared to $50 per ounce, and they drove gold to $850 per ounce.” Those prices today are equivalent to about $192 and $3,256, respectively.
“During the end of George W. Bush’s term in 2007-2008 and throughout Barack Obama’s terms in 2009-2017, gold hit a high of $1,895—a gain of 122%. And silver rose to $48.70, for a gain of 330%. So, what did Bush and Obama do to spur metals growth to these levels? The real contributing factor was not our chief executives, but the most likely culprits were the housing and banking crises, which impacted the metals more critically. Banks went under and many mortgages failed. Those factors contributed mightily to gold and silver prices.”
Garofalo notes that during the end of Trump’s administration in 2020 and throughout most of Joe Biden’s presidential term from 2021 through 2024, gold and silver soared, with gold reaching historic highs. “Once again, it wasn’t these diametrically opposed presidents who increased prices, it was COVID-19 more than anything done in Washington.”
2024 U.S. Election and the Coin Industry
As we see, bullion pricing activity surrounding presidential elections might be more a matter of correlation than causation. If we look at the proverbial textbooks, we understand that some of the most important factors that tend to drive up gold prices are rising inflation, dropping interest rates and a sluggish economy. Conversely, a strengthening dollar, rising interest rates and excess supply can push gold prices downward. However, the mechanics behind the prevailing price of gold are far more complex—and they can become especially complicated during political transitions.
Gold falling in the days after Trump’s second claim to the White House had more to do with the anticipation of what may come from his policies once they are set into place. If tariffs rise and inflation follows suit, then the mechanics may be in place for further mercurial changes on the bullion scene.
Yet, even if inflation materializes, it’s possible that gold prices could still increase if other factors kick into high gear. They include the geopolitical instability that may result from whatever comes to pass overseas. And if there’s anything global instability is known for doing, it is pushing people toward traditional tangible assets like gold.
Rare Coins Benefit Too
The bullion and rare-coin markets often ride the waves of calamity in tandem. When gold prices perk up, many buyers spill into the numismatic market. And when bullion falters, collectors ready to liquidate tend to sell while the market is still good enough to turn a profit.
Wall Street fund groups created a bubble with their new money in the late ’80s as sophisticated investors sought alternative investments—rare coins among them. However, the bubble deflated by 1990 as Wall Street coin scandals motivated some investors to park their money elsewhere.”
But the correlation between the health of the rare-coin market and general market trends goes beyond the influence of bullion prices alone. As Garofalo says, investor activity among rare coins pivots on the whims of Wall Street and other markets.
“Rare-coin prices are generally impacted by profit-taking in both the stock markets and in the crypto worlds,” Garofalo says. “As people realize their ‘paper gains’ and turn them into tangible gains, investors look for safe havens in which to save their profits. Both bullion and rare coins fit that bill as they are liquid, tangible, hard assets. Savvy investors allocate some portion of their profits to each.”
Dealers and collectors who have been around long enough saw how this played out with strong markets for rare coins in the late 1970s and late 1980s. Each of those periods saw growth in the coin market for different reasons. Rising bullion prices influenced gains for rare coins during the late disco era. Meanwhile, the advent of third-party grading in the mid-1980s sparked speculative sight-unseen trading of encapsulated rare coins near the end of that decade. Wall Street fund groups created a bubble with their new money in the late ’80s as sophisticated investors sought alternative investments—rare coins among them. However, the bubble deflated by 1990 as Wall Street coin scandals motivated some investors to park their money elsewhere.
The growth of the rare-coin market in 2020 had little to do with that year’s tumultuous presidential election. Many collectibles markets were propped up by side effects of the pandemic, with millions of people around the world stuck in their homes and many flush with economic stimulus funds from the government. Countless Americans spent those checks on hobbies like coin collecting, oftentimes inspired by the nostalgia of revisiting pastimes they had once enjoyed but packed into the closet when life became busy with work or family obligations.
With a change of administration now in the White House, what happens in 2025? The year is still young as are market effects influenced by President Trump’s second term in office. Surely, the bullion and rare-coin markets will make moves in the months ahead. But by how much and why remain the questions. Widespread job growth, worsening inflation, a strengthening dollar and geopolitical headlines are all vastly different potential outcomes during President Trump’s first year back in the White House. All have the power to tilt prices for gold and rare coins one way or another. Now we can only wait and see.
